Discussion: Sydney's Weather

[rainfan]

After further overnight showers some heavy, eased off from mid morning. Mostly cloudy and cold with fresh SE winds.

Rain to 9am:
City: 7mm
Airport: 10mm
Rose Bay: 12mm & another station just nearby with 22mm

Temps:
City: 9/15
Airport 10/16

[rainfan]

Well BOM's forecast of "few showers" didn't eventuate today, quite the opposite in fact much to my delight , it was a very wet, cold, overcast & wintry day. After a low of 9oC, the maximum in the city was only 12 degrees with the midday temp being 11 degrees, same for the airport , those places being the second coldest places in the Sydney Metro Area after Terrey Hills which had a maximum of 11 degrees.

Showers started again last night from 9pm increasing & becoming more frequent after 11pm & sometimes heavy, increasing to RAIN from 6am, continuing until 2pm today with some moderate to heavy falls then easing to a few showers , however the rain today was concentrated in the eastern suburbs as well as the CBD.

(I take my hat off to you ATO2, won't rely on the models so much & thanks North Islanders, you did listen to my request of sending rain this way ).

Southerly winds were moderate in the city, fresh on the coast.

Rain to 9am today:
City: 8mm
Airport: 20mm
Rose Bay: 12mm
Highest fall: 34mm at Royal National Park

Rain since 9am today:
City: 14mm
Airport: 7mm
Rose Bay: 14mm
Highest fall: 18mm at Little Bay

BOM is forecasting Monday's weather to be like much like today - showery with a top of 14 degrees.

[rainfan]

Confirmed figures for Rose Bay Jan - Jun 2008

Jan: 40
Feb: 289
Mar: 65
Apr: 143
May: 11 (driest on record)
June: 135
Total: 684

[ATO2]

(I take my hat off to you ATO2, won't rely on the models so much & thanks North Islanders, you did listen to my request of sending rain this way ).

Ah, but there is a sting in this: we are now at risk of a huge volume of stuff which came from your side of the ditch!
(OK, ok, I know you are not in Queensland!)
Out of curiosity- and this is obviously not science: do you feel that it has been an unusual July? Do you know how others you know feel about the weather you have had this month?
Trust me on this, for a few moments, and I will amplify later after the storm.
Thanks.

[RWood]

It's a bit off the topic, but not of general interest I'm sure: there's been a lot of concern at the very wet state of Wellington's parks and outdoor sports venues. Usual hyperbole applies (people have no memory of anything that's not recent), and they are blaming the "wet winter", but in fact this started with high autumn rainfall (caused by a few major downpours and a wet week in late May), and greatly lowered windspeeds dating back to November. Consequently at the start of winter things were already very damp underfoot, an unusual situation when there has also been an excess of sunshine. I am firmly of the opinion that Wellington would be much better off if the mean annual rainfall were lowered by at least 150-200mm (there was a 30-year period from 1906-1935 when the average was in that range).

[Grant]

With the recent quake activity, is this likely to lead to liquification issues in parts of Wellington?

[rainfan]

Originally Posted by ATO2

(I take my hat off to you ATO2, won't rely on the models so much & thanks North Islanders, you did listen to my request of sending rain this way ).

Ah, but there is a sting in this: we are now at risk of a huge volume of stuff which came from your side of the ditch!
(OK, ok, I know you are not in Queensland!)
Out of curiosity- and this is obviously not science: do you feel that it has been an unusual July? Do you know how others you know feel about the weather you have had this month?
Trust me on this, for a few moments, and I will amplify later after the storm.
Thanks.

Yes, unfortunate for you North Islanders, seriously it sounds like you've had more than needed rain, hopefully for you guys August will be dry after a quite wet July (1942 is an such example - many places had the wettest May on record then the driest June on record!).

As for here, the weather has been quite changeable compared with previous Julys, many people have said it seems to be the coldest July they've felt in years. I've found it quite cold as well & many cold nights with quite low minimums, I've had to wear more layers of clothes & have the heater going a lot more than usual compared to recent Julys. However after the 2nd warmest June nights on record & since 1967 - this is one possible reason of why we felt the cold more. There've been some days of strong winds especially from the SW but light to fresh from other quadrants. Reasonable amount of sun & rain although the increase of high cloud days did surprise me as I don't recall a July having quite a lot of high cloud days.

[ATO2]

You have a point there, RWood. And that got me thinking. Flush with my success with massaging statistics for Dollsworth's storm quest I have am now inspired by your opinion that Wellington needs less rain.
The answer lies in the Math. Currently you have a 12 month year.Off hand I can't recall the current annual rf (and I don't want to loose my internet connexion again by looking things up.) I shall assume that it is about 1200mm. So 100mm per month on average.
OK, now here is the solution:

Your year is too long! Remove two average
months from the year's total. That now gives a total of 1000mm. Divide it by 12 and now the the average is 83.3mm per month.
So we now know the average is approx 83mm /month a decrease of 17mm on the earlier figure
This gives 17mm X 12 = 204mm less than the 1200 mm quoted at the start.
1200 - 204 = 996mm, thus solving the problem of excess rainfall.
So simple, really.
You should be dry underfoot already!

[ATO2]

Thanks very much, rainfan. I will update on that.

[RWood]

Originally Posted by ATO2

You have a point there, RWood. And that got me thinking. Flush with my success with massaging statistics for Dollsworth's storm quest I have am now inspired by your opinion that Wellington needs less rain.
The answer lies in the Math. Currently you have a 12 month year.Off hand I can't recall the current annual rf (and I don't want to loose my internet connexion again by looking things up.) I shall assume that it is about 1200mm. So 100mm per month on average.
OK, now here is the solution:

Your year is too long! Remove two average
months from the year's total. That now gives a total of 1000mm. Divide it by 12 and now the the average is 83.3mm per month.
So we now know the average is approx 83mm /month a decrease of 17mm on the earlier figure
This gives 17mm X 12 = 204mm less than the 1200 mm quoted at the start.
1200 - 204 = 996mm, thus solving the problem of excess rainfall.
So simple, really.
You should be dry underfoot already!

nice thought! We're yo-yoing in rainfall over recent years - 2003 well below, 2004 well above, 2005 well below, 2006 well above, 2007 well below. 2008 is likely to stay comfortably above unless the next 5 months are pretty dry.