Discussion: Week 28th June to 4th July 2008

[Grant]

Weather discussion for the week 28th June to 4th July 2008

[Grant]

Just checking the GFS charts for the next week or so, it looks to be fairly wet and remaining cold, with a low sitting off the east coast, maintaining a southerly flow over much of NZ. The risk of snow during the 28th and 29th seems to be confined to high land over central much of Central NZ.

After this, from the 30th the odd positioning of a high sandwiched between 2 lows, brings with it some respite from the winds and precipitation, but maintains the cold upper airflow from the south, increasing the risk of frosts.

A warmer airflow should start to push through as we move into July.

GFS charts are availble from the OGIMET link in resources

[TokWW]

A deep Low of below 954hPa sits below Lat 50 well below Tasmania and is moving along briskly with its associated cloud bands and S-SW wind stream which will cover the Tasman and NZ shortly.

It can be seen in this Intellicast pic I have on my website. It will move and grow closer as the days progress. Updated regularly.



With the SW winds will be colder temps for everyone. Some rain instead of snow in northern places, although teh high country will still experience the white stuff and then more frosts after the shower bands have passed but still with the SW stream. I need to read some of the longer range forecasts...

[Grant]

Remaining wet and windy, especially into Sunday morning. Snow remains likely on high ground.

[Grant]

MetService have now picked up on the fact that winds could hit gale force

"However, the southerly could 'accentuate' the wind and rain between Canterbury and Wairarapa bringing gale force winds and snow to about 500m," Mr McDavitt said.

[Grant]

Slight change in the models for 28th June 2008 12:00 UTC (29th June Local)

The low now seems to be centering itself into the cook strait, bringing the brunt of the winds and heavy rain to Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast. Winds should be from the SE with mean average of 30 knots (50 kmh). Snow remains a risk for high ground

[ATO2]

Severe Weather Watch - New Zealand:MetService.com - Weather

A deep low east of Canterbury is expected to move slowly northwards
and pass east of the Kaikoura Coast and Wairarapa coast overnight
Saturday or Sunday morning, before moving away to the northeast later
in the day. The low is likely to bring a period of heavy rain and
southwest gales to North Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast from late
Saturday afternoon through to Sunday afternoon, with possible heavy
snow down to 500 metres.

is the latest thing met service has to say.
Similar sort of stuff on National Radio 8am news.
Looking forward to some sunny, cloudless days here in New Plymouth, after today or tomorrow!

[Grant]

Nice from my point of view to see it concurs. I try to avoid metservice unless they email and interesting warning as the site is sooooo slow

[ATO2]

Yes, that site of theirs(when accessible, of course) is often slow- God knows what it is like 20,000 km away!
I wonder, now we are to have changes in domain name endings, if there will be a dot slp (sleep)?

[Grant]

Little change from the latest GFS, still suggesting heavy rain incoming to the areas of Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast during the 28th and overnight into the 29th June. Also a break away section may bring some features to the Wellington district.