[Grant]

Time to take a look at the week ahead for the 8th to the 14th February 2010. What do you think will be the significant factor of this weeks weather? When are the days to watch?
You can find some resources to help you at http://www.nzweather.net/forum/links/
or check out the 10 day forecasts at metservice http://metservice.co.nz/national/ or in your local paper.

This is something everyone can take part in. We are a weather forum, so lets discuss the week ahead ;)
:feedback:

[Grant]

OK, so I'll start things off.

Monday runs the risk of thunderstorms across the central parts of North Island.

Quote

A weak trough is forecast to cross central and northern parts of the North Island this afternoon and evening. This trough, together with a slight cooling of temperatures aloft, afternoon heating and sea breezes is expected to produce scattered showers from Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula down to Taranaki and western parts of Bay of Plenty and Taupo. There is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in the broad area from south Auckland down to Taumarunui, but with a high risk of thunderstorms in western areas of Waikato, Waitomo and also in Taumarunui.
http://metservice.co...erstorm-outlook

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The introduction to the weekend looks as though it will be a wet one in the SW, as MetService are forecasting heavy rainfall on Friday and Saturday according to their severe weather outlook. This is backed by the current GFS run

The 10 day forecast for Christchurch looks fairly stable with sunny spells and dry weather up until Saturday. The GFS charts for the week ahead seem to correlate with the forecasts too.
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[David]

It's still looking depressingly dry for the north of the NI for another week...some unsettled patches starting to show up in models mid-Feb but doesn't look like much.

This post has been edited by David: 08 February 2010 - 10:41 PM

[Tornado Tim]

Grant, on 08 February 2010 - 09:47 PM, said:

OK, so I'll start things off.

Monday runs the risk of thunderstorms across the central parts of North Island.

mondts.png

Well i knew that warning wasnt going to come true and it didnt, LOL
The Upper air temps were way to warm for t-storms.
Only producing a 1 clap wonder and isolated heat showers.

This post has been edited by Tornado Tim: 08 February 2010 - 11:10 PM

[Kiwi]

it looks as thought the week is going to be worse than originally forecast. The TV is showing rain for Christchurch tonight and tomorrow then saturday the risk of NW gales has been introduced. Looking at the heavy rain for the West Coast, MetService confidence is now rated as high

[Kiwi]

MetService have issues a severe weather watch today for Saturday's weather events

Quote

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTLAND BULLER NELSON CANTERBURY
MARLBOROUGH WELLINGTON WAIRARAPA

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1026hrs 11-Feb-2010

A BURST OF HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY FOR THE WESTLAND, BULLER AND
NORTHWEST NELSON RANGES AND THE SOUTHERN ALPS, WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
GALES FOR CANTERBURY, MARLBOROUGH, WELLINGTON AND WAIRARAPA

MetService forecasters expect a deep depression to move
southeastwards over the southern South Island on Saturday morning.Its
associated cold front should sweep across the South Island during
this time, preceded by a strong moist northwest airstream.

This front is likely to bring a short burst of very heavy rain to the
ranges of Westland, Buller, and northwest Nelson, and to the
headwaters of the Canterbury lakes and rivers.

Also, there could be a period of severe gale force northwesterlies on
Saturday in parts of Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington and
Wairarapa.