[Grant]

080900z position near 13.1s 160.5w.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 14p (pat), located approximately 585 nm east of
Pago Pago, has tracked south-southeastward at 16 knots over the past
six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows the convection
over the low level circulation center has become more symmetric and
organized over the past 12 hours. Current Dvorak intensity estimates
range from 45 to 55 knots, supporting the recent increase to 50
knots for this forecast. A 080427z windsat pass shows a tightly
wrapped system with a microwave eye dimple present, which also sup-
ports the current intensity. The upper level environment continues to
remain favorable with good radial outflow into the poleward and equa-
torward outflow channels. Tc 14p is tracking along the southwestern
periphery of a near equatorial ridge (ner). This is expected to
change as a subtropical ridge (str) to the southeast of pat builds
to the northwest, causing a slow down in the track speed as the
dominant steering influence shifts from the ner to the str. The str
will cause the track to shift to the southwest through the remainder
of the forecast period, with an increase in speed near tau 96 as the
str strengthens. Intensity is expected to continue increasing through
tau 48 with the good upper level support. As tc 14p tracks more
southward, increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface
temperatures will begin to hinder development and eventually lead to
a gradual weakening of the system through tau 120. Maximum signifi-
cant wave height at 080600z is 14 feet.

Attached File(s)

•  pat.gif (43.55K)
  Number of downloads: 1
•  patvis.jpg (22.99K)
  Number of downloads: 1

[Grant]

082100z position near 14.0s 159.7w.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 14p (pat), located approximately 630 nm east of
Pago-Pago, has tracked southeastward at 10 knots over the past six
hours. Animated multispectral imagery shows the system has maintained
a compact and symmetrical area of convection over the past 12 hours.
Tc 14p is tracking along the southwest extension of a near equatorial
ridge to the north in an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear.
Water vapor animation shows good radial outflow with minimal banding.
The current position is extrapolated from the latest microwave images
and from multi-agency fixes including pgtw, knes, and nffn. The
current intensity is supported by a Dvorak estimate of t3.5 from
pgtw. Tc pat is expected to track on a more poleward direction as a
deep-layered subtropical ridge to the south assumes steering over the
next 12 hours. After tau 36, the system will track southwestward into
cooler sea surface temperatures, causing it to gradually weaken. By
tau 120, tc 14p will turn more southward as it begins to round the
western periphery of the steering ridge. The available numeric
guidance is in unison as far as turning the track to the south then
to the southwest, however, there is a notable spread in the envelope
as the system tracks to the southwest past tau 24, with JGSM and
ECMWF to the right of the pack and WBAR and UKMET to the left. This
forecast is in the middle of the envelope alongside jtwc consensus.
Maximum significant wave height at 081800z is 15 feet.

Attached File(s)

•  patlatest.gif (35K)
  Number of downloads: 4

[Grant]

Quote

A tropical cyclone struck the island of Aitutaki early this morning and there are reports that 90 per cent of houses on the small resort island in the Cooks group have been damaged.

Communications appear to be restored in Aitutaki which was hammered overnight by the Category Three cyclone.

The Emergency Operational Centre lost contact with Aitutaki to the north for several hours this morning. A spokesman said satellite phone contact is now in place but there are still no details about how much damage the cyclone has caused.

Cyclone Pat is expected to weaken once it passes Aitutaki and moves into open water.

The cyclone is currently moving southwest across the Cook Islands group.
http://www.nzherald....jectid=10625495

[Grant]

Quote

A second tropical cyclone is forecast to hit the Cook Islands after a State of Disaster has been declared on the island of Aitutaki.

The Fiji Meteorological Service is forecasting Cyclone Rene to hit Nassau, Pukapuka, Suwarrow and nearby islands with gale force winds.

Meanwhile the New Zealand Air Force is on standby after Cyclone Pat struck Aitutaki yesterday.

The category-three cyclone passed through early in the day, damaging houses, felling trees and knocking out power and communications.

Despite the storm's ferocity, there have been no reports of casualties or serious injuries.

A spokesman for the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAid) said the islands had good emergency warning systems and people had time to head for shelters before the cyclone struck.

The New Zealand manager for Cook Islands Tourism, Chris Ingram, said about 60 per cent of the houses on Aitutaki had been damaged.

http://msn.nzherald....0625734&ref=rss